The 3-Month Treasury Bill Yield to Junk Bond Spread ratio has reliably predicted every recession since 1997 without false positives. This indicator recently broke below its 100-period weekly moving ...

NEW YORK - OCTOBER 02: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) October 2, 2008 in New York City. After passing in the Senate late Wednesday, the Bush administration's proposed ...

Viard observes that fiscal stimulus to aggregate demand must be properly timed because stimulus “borrows” output and jobs from the future rather than creating them from thin air. He also argues that ...

Prediction market bettors are increasingly expecting the U.S. economy to enter a recession this year. Kalshi's market for whether the U.S. going into a recession in 2026 hit its highest level since ...

U.S. consumer spending, which drives nearly 70% of GDP, is showing signs of exhaustion as savings dwindle and job losses rise. Consumer sentiment has plunged to near all-time lows, with rising ...

US recession 2026 prediction explained: Worries about a possible US recession are growing, as new data and forecasts suggest the economy may be under more pressure than it appears. While Federal ...

US recession warning 2026: Concerns about a possible US recession are gaining momentum as rising oil prices and global tensions begin to weigh on the economic outlook. Wall Street analysts point to ...

Income investors often chase the fattest current yield on the screen. That is a mistake. A payout that has been raised straight through the 1990 recession, the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis ...